Sensing the Census, Circa 2050

6.7 to 9.2. Billion. The difference between these two numbers is the projected global population increase between now and 2050. I’ve seen these same figures (or close approximations) mindlessly repeated on a plethora of popular blogs and Web sites, but no one seems to be questioning the validity of this false premise.

Sure, in theory the global population could increase by roughly 45-50% over 40 years, providing that all the conditions that support the theory are at optimum levels. The only problem with the “everything’s perfect” scenario is that everything’s not. When all of the negatives are factored into the equation the theory doesn’t hold up.

Take the current population, for instance. As it approaches 7 billion people, it’s already exceeded sustainable numbers by 4‒5 billion. If the world cannot sustain the people that are already here, how can it possibly accommodate 2‒3 billion more?

The short answer is that it can’t, for reasons that are—or will soon become—obvious.

As a growing global population increases the demand for energy, timber, food, water and other resources, it sets into motion a series of causes and effects that produce some interesting but altogether predictable results.

For example, increased energy use fuels the rise of energy prices and contributes to global climate changes and higher costs for food production, processing, packaging, transportation, and storage; global climate changes affect the abundance and availability of potable water, alter growing seasons, and redefine the boundaries between arable and non-arable land.

When timber is removed from forest lands to clear the way for agriculture or to supply the housing market with building materials or with buildable land, the loss of potential for carbon sequestration introduces positive feedback loops that exacerbate global climate change. Vicious circles, ‘round and ‘round they go.

Growing demand for energy, food, and other vital resources increases the likelihood of wars between nations to obtain these resources. The potential loss of human life due to war, disease, famine, and a laundry list of pending environmental and climate disasters means that the global population in the year 2050 is far more likely to be under 3 billion people than it is to be over 7 billion people. No way will it ever exceed 9 billion people.

Face it! We’ve been cursed. We do, indeed, live in interesting times, and the times are about to get even more interesting. We’ve taunted the piper into playing, now pay the piper we must.

Local Effects of Global Climate Change

No sooner had Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski been reelected than the local television media was jumping all over him for daring to speak the truth about Oregon’s climate often being in direct conflict with the over-privileged elite’s favorite delusions.

Kulongoski’s comments implied, not too subtly, that people who build expensive houses in areas that are prone to erosion or flooding or other whims of nature have way too much money and not nearly enough brains. What Kulongoski hinted at is that building in a watershed or perching a vacation home on the edge of a cliff, facing the ocean, isn’t a smart thing to do.

It’s no secret that nature behaves in unpredictable ways. Storms happen, and when they do wind blows and rain falls, unleashing upon the unsuspecting and the unprepared all sorts of discomforts and uncertainties. Rivers rise and overflow their banks; ground saturates and turns to mud and the forces of wind and water cause trees to topple; storm surge erodes beaches and undermines the cliffs that abut them. Nature’s forces are relentless and unforgiving, and no one should be surprised by them or made indignant because of them.

Certain privileges carry certain risks. The price of a spectacular view of the Pacific is that the fabulous McMansion one enjoys it from is at risk of perishing in the next storm. The price of an intimate view of the Sandy River, or any river, is that the viewpoint is at risk of washing away in the next flood. The price of living near a volcano is the risk that, someday, you’ll be blown away by a pyroclastic floe or swept away by a lahar.

While I don’t wish adversity or misfortune on anyone, I deeply resent all the whining and bitching and complaining when disaster strikes those whom invite it. As they lament their bad luck and curse Mother Nature’s cruel acts against them, they should take a hard look into the mirror and stare deeply into the eyes of the idiot that put them in harm’s way.

When the oil runs out . . .

Americans, either in extreme denial or just plain ignorance about the effects of the “Great American Dream” lifestyle on global environments and economies, continue their profligate ways as if the good times could roll on forever. Few of them think about the consequences of global warming-induced climate changes, or how deeply the coming oil shortages will impact their lives.

What can I—or anyone else—say or do to get their attention? Probably nothing! Can anyone make them understand that the threat is real, that it’s serious, and that failure to plan now will only exacerbate the problems later on? Probably not!

Few people realize that society in 2050 will more closely resemble that which existed in 1850 than it will society as it existed in 1950. I’ve seen many good reasons why this should be so, and no credible evidence that it should be otherwise.

Have you ever wondered what the world will be like after the oil runs out? Have you ever stopped to consider just how much every aspect of your life depends on oil? Without oil, will you still be able to get to and from work? Can your job exist without oil?

Everything near and dear to the American way of life depends, directly or indirectly, on oil. When the oil disappears, so too will the comfort and ease and all the things in your life that an abundance of oil made possible.

Are you capable of growing your own food? You’ll have to, you know, unless you can coerce a generous neighbor into growing it for you. Without oil, Big Agriculture won’t be able to grow or harvest crops, or ship produce to processors or markets. There’ll be no way to transport manufactured goods, in the quantities we’ve needed and come to rely on, over long distances.

Without oil, the global economy will collapse, as will stock markets, real estate values and banks. Many governments, too, will fail, and life in civilized countries will seem a little less civilized.

In a future that’s closer than anyone thinks, self-sufficiency and sustainability are the keys to survival. Are you prepared to survive? Or do you even care?

A disaster scenario to suit every taste . . .

The problem with global scales is that they invite global disasters. Today, a myriad of disasters is poised to strike a series of fatal blows to the global community, and at this late date there’s probably not much anyone can do to prevent them. Business as usual and play now, pay later mindsets have gotten us in too deep.

In the same way that people are blind to the idea that all things are connected, they’re also blind to the irony attached to approaching catastrophic events. Although the timeline and order of events might be a little bit skewed, the show looks something like this:

Industrialization leads to human greed leads to consumer culture leads to fossil fuel addiction leads to environmental destruction and war in the Middle East.

When the debt-financed U.S. economy collapses, economic shock waves circumnavigate the globe, toppling the economies of Europe, Asia and South America.

Global climate changes raise sea levels, which inundate coastal communities around the world and disrupt international shipping. Changing weather patterns cause floods, droughts and increasingly severe storms, which disrupt food production and distribution worldwide.

Fuel shortages cause a cessation of international air travel, but not before a few global pandemics infect all but the most isolated countries on Earth.

The Middle East war expands as 1st-world nations vie for remaining resources. Soon, the war goes “nukular” (as the idiot cowboy in the White House would say).

Had enough, yet?

Don’t worry, you will!

Right about the time an asteroid smashes into Earth, triggering an eruption of the supervolcano at Yellowstone Park.

It all makes going to hell in a handbasket look pretty good, doesn't it?